I attended the CEPAR Longevity workshop last week and you could literally tell from the name, it was very technical and full of crazy formulas. However, it covered the very important perceptions for future trends in mortality modelling which will impact annuity price, people and society. Mortality model itself sounds unexciting, but it is the vital element in pricing for longevity products.
During the workshop, researchers presented their works in modelling mortality, especially focusing on the late-life mortality. Apparently, “deceleration” occurs in late-life mortality due to heterogeneity and fixed individual frailty. By including those factors, we can make better assumptions and more accurate mortality model.
Out of all the presentations, I was especially drawn to Severine Arnold’s research on Swedish population. I was just purely curious to hear more as they are one of the longest living groups of people on earth! Severine identified the interesting trends of old-age mortality and how with different age group, geographic locations, countries, the mortality trends all convergence to certain point at oldest age.
I would also suggest considering Carol Jagger’s research on trends and measures in longevity and health. She did highlight the trends in health expectancy is less simple and less harmonization across countries and within countries over time in comparison with life expectancy.
Overall, the full-day workshop was intense and there was so much to learn and absorb. Thanks to CEPAR, we continue to make improvements in our models and techniques.
